Chaos continues in northwestern Pakistan as Taliban militia engage Pakistani forces. The violence, stemming from an influx of Taliban influence in the region and a failed armistice in February, has displaced about 1.5 million Pakistanis and devastated the once-peaceful Swat Valley. Amidst the Pakistani government’s cries for humanitarian and military assistance, foreign powers worry about the possible repercussions of Taliban aggression in an unstable Pakistan.
The conflict in the Swat valley region of Pakistan can be traced back to almost five years of fighting between Pakistani troops and warlike tribesmen believed to be allied with the Taliban and Osama bin Laden. Tensions came to a head in 2008 when militant Taliban groups conducted strikes of terror demanding the imposition of Islamic Sharia law on the region. In February of 2009, the Pakistani government signed a peace deal with the pro-Taliban militants: in exchange for cessation of hostilities, Sharia law would be instated in the Pakistan’s northwest. Various foreign observers labeled the pact a weak-kneed capitulation on the part of the Pakistani government, a face-saving attempt to soften the image of the Pakistani Army. However, despite the signing of the armistice, militant terrorism continued; by late April, pro-Taliban forces had exerted control beyond the Swat valley into towns and villages as near as sixty miles to Pakistan’s capital city of Islamabad. Pakistani forces engaged the militants as they advanced, attempting to push them back to northwest. Analyzing the situation, Brigadier Mehmood Shah of Peshawar argues that in continuing the conflict, “the Taliban have exposed their real intention—not the implementation of Sharia law, but to seize power in Pakistan.” Swat Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan confirmed Shah’s suspicions in a statement in late April: “The more they [Pakistani troops] carry out operations the more we will expand across Pakistan. God willing, one day we will touch its last boundary.”
Foreign powers have expressed much consternation over the possible repercussions of increased Taliban control in Pakistan. The United States, which views Pakistan as essential in its plans to combat al Qaeda in Afghanistan, has demonstrated particular concern. US commentators have called the current struggle in northwestern Pakistan as an “existential” threat to the nation’s stability. Additionally, the prospect of Taliban forces seizing control of Pakistan’s nuclear warheads has lead foreign countries to fear a worst-case scenario. Although both the American and Pakistani governments maintain faith that such fears are “alarmist” and irrational—US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she could not “even contemplate” the possibility—the situation still causes many a furrowed brow amongst international leaders.
War in the Pakistani northwest has had disastrous effects on local populations. The Taliban’s seizure of the Swat and districts main town of Mingora prompted a mass exodus from the region as Pakistanis fled the violence. Initial estimates for the number of displaced Pakistanis hovered around 500,000 in early May; by the end of the month, that figure had skyrocketed to 1.5 million. As refugees clamored out of the region, Pakistani leaders quickly declared a humanitarian crisis and sent desperate pleas for foreign aid. Various international organizations, including the World Health Organization, have been quick to come to the aid of the refugees. The UN especially has exerted itself to alleviate the humanitarian crisis: the UN Food Program, UNICEF, and the UN refugee agency have all been mobilized to deal with the situation. According to BBC News, international donors have pledged $224 million for the relief and rehabilitation of those displaced in Pakistan’s North Western Frontier Province, $110 million of which coming from the US. However, acting UN humanitarian coordinator Martin Mogwanja has told reporters and diplomats that a sum total of $543 million in assistance will be required until the end of December of 2009 in order to deal with the crisis.
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